Some Thoughts on Crypto Market Conditions and Where We're Headed.

I spent the early afternoon going through my crypto portfolio. What a mess! It had to happen sooner or later. I've been on a nice run since 2017. Sooner or later, I had to get stuck holding some serious bags.

I'm going to start with, I think there is still serious money to be made in the crypto space as a trader. With that said, I'm going to be extremely cautious with any new positions I'm opening. As much money as there is to be made, I think there is an equal opportunity to lose serious money with current market conditions.

With the last market cycle we saw a lot of established coins rally. Most didn't even come close to the all time highs of rally's past. I'll start with market saturation. The market was just bombarded with tons of new projects. A lot of money spread out through a lot of different projects. The market is saturated with DeFi, memecoins, NFTs, layer2 protocols, and several new networks.

Some of these projects were welcome additions to the space, others were complete crap. As most of us suspected, NFTs didn't really recover either. On top of all that, outside of ETF's, there wasn't a lot of catalysts to fuel a proper rally. Now everyone is shooting for prediction markets and AI projects on every chain. This could be our next big catalyst or at the very least one of several that fuels the next rally.

We all knew the day would come, when just buying everything and anything at the right time wouldn't work anymore. I think it's safe to say, we're there. Between market saturation, and coins that aren't good for much outside of speculation, those days are probably over.

My current strategy is to get rid of my dead weight. I want out of memecoins. I bought a bunch on Gemini just because, and what a mistake! Then, to add insult to injury, 6 months later, Gemini delisted most of them. WTF, really. Why list them in the first place. I can dump most of them on DeFi exchanges, it's still just the point of the matter. If you're going to list a coin, unless it's a security risk, or legal issue you really do sort of owe it to your userbase to keep them listed for awhile. With that said, I wonder if maybe Gemini knows something the rest of us don't. The Crypto Clarity Act may effect some of these meme projects. Still, I tend to trade on Gemini, because I believe they know what they're doing over there. I trust them to act honorably, and treat me fairly. Moves like this, make me question that. Was it just a quick money grab?

Regulation and Crypto Clarity Act

I've never been a fan of regulation. I feared over-regulation and I think we saw that with the Biden administration. I think Joe Biden did a lot to really screw up market sentiment with Gary Gensler and his regulation through enforcement policies. Their interpretation of crypto laws were ambiguous at best. This wasn't good for anyone. Nobody was safe, they went after influencers, developers, exchanges. It really was the darkest time for crypto enforcement IMHO.

Probably the only positive thing about Trump is he's a pro-crypto president. I think a lot of big investors are sitting on their hands until this Crypto Clarity Act gets passed. So, from a legal standpoint, I think we're seeing a lot of people waiting to see what happens here. Once we get proper clarity, we should see a huge "second wind" of new investors along with new projects. We may also see a lot of delistings of coins that don't make the cut from a legal POV. Lets face it, waiting to see what happens here, is a very smart move. If I wasn't already heavily invested, I definitely would be waiting. I suspect several of my projects will be worthless overnight once this bill passes. At the very least, I won't be able to trade them on US exchanges.

Where We're Headed

Like I said, I'm out of memecoins all together. I'm talking stuff like GOAT, PEPE, MEW, CHILL and the like. All fun but worthless projects for the most part.

I can't stress USECASE enough. If the project isn't being used or doesn't have a damn good potential usecase. I'm out! Crypto coins need to be used. HIVE is a perfect example of that. We have usecase, and we have people that use the coin and the network daily. What does it do, and how well does it do it? Hive is social networking blockchain, and it does it very well. I'm good holding my bag of HIVE. As long as people keep posting, and we have our community, I'll always be comfortable holding my bag of HIVE.

So that's where I'm at right now. I'm looking at all my bags. Keeping what has potential, selling off what I think is garbage or just has no future. I'll take the tax write off and sell at a loss if I have to. Any new positions I open has to have usecase! It must have people using it! I'm talking coins like XRP, Ethereum, BTC :(, Solana, UNI, XLM, HIVE.

I'm staying away from memecoins, coins with no real world usecase, and coins that just aren't being used for anything outside of speculation. I just have this nagging feeling like the bottom is literally going to fall out of the crypto market. We're due for some kind of black swan event. Once we have the catalyst, I think we'll see a lot of the shit get flushed right down the crapper where it belongs. Who knows, depending on the wording, The Crypto Clarity Act could be that catalyst for disaster if a lot of the coins don't meet it's criteria.

I think projects focused on prediction markets, AI, and DeFi could be safe. Again we don't know how the Crypto Clarity act will frame DeFi. We already have a couple of states in the US already screaming about prediction markets, saying it's gambling. I tend to agree, but also believe in freedom and wish they'd butt out and leave the morality of it up to the individual.

So that's where I'm headed for future trading. Cleaning up my portfolio. Getting out of most shitcoins and memecoins. Focusing on strong projects with usecase and that are being used in the real world. My plan is to focus on well established projects that people are already using. I'm also looking at any coins that are trading on ETFs and watching those closely.

I'm cautious about anything related to DeFi or prediction markets until we get proper clarity. The benefit to buying now is cheap prices. The downside is, if the law doesn't go our way, we're screwed!

My main focus will be to continue on with well established coins like XRP, XLM, ETH, SOL... Oh boy, before I get slammed for my next statement, XRP and XLM were very clear about the market they were shooting for. They were coins for the establishment and sort of by the establishment right from the start. Unlike other projects that pulled the old bait and switch.

I'm not trading BTC because, I didn't sign up for another investment tool for Wall St. to speculate on. Man did we ever do an about face. I get regulation, but BTC has become everything we were fighting against. It's no longer a tool to "bank the unbanked", it doesn't even reasonably act as money with it's ridiculous fees and confirmation times. Is it even good for remittances? I mean any coin could do that. It's just another tool for rich people to store wealth and speculate on. I'll have fun staying poor and keep my soul thanks. Just keeping it real. So currently, I have ZERO BTC.

TLDR

And that's where I'm at. I'm staying cautious. Looking for trends in AI and prediction markets. Watching regulators closely and making future decisions based on established regulations. Staying away from all things NFT, memecoin, and shitcoins with no real usecase.