All Noise? Stocks Rally While Macro Risks Simmer

Calm Beats Panic

I am honestly surprised. Oil is still trading around $100, the Strait of Hormuz is technically open but fragile, and the Iran conflict is just simmering under a ceasefire, yet the S&P is sitting less than 1% below its all-time high. The V-shaped recovery over the past two weeks has been pretty remarkable.

To me, this suggests one of two things: either the constant FUD about rising inflation and macro escalation is significantly overstated, or big players are simply betting (and hoping) that the situation will stabilize.

What do you think? Could we see a repeat of last year’s tariff situation, heavy FUD, a sharp sell-off, and then a swift recovery once it turns out everything was overblown?

Either way, my takeaway is this: most of the noise isn’t worth reacting to. Staying calm and hodling seems to be the better strategy. And if a larger correction does come, it’s more likely a long-term buying opportunity than a reason to panic.